Raton, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

407
FXUS65 KABQ 180558 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1058 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1058 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

- Strong winds today, focusing across central, east central, and
  south central NM where occasional gusts of 45 to 60 mph will
  taper off this evening.

- An arctic cold front will arrive Saturday along with frigid
  temperatures and a round of light to moderate snow (1 to 6
  inches). Snowfall will lead to slick and icy roadways,
  particularly along I-25 near Raton Pass where higher amounts
  will create hazardous driving conditions. Frigid temperatures
  will last into Sunday.

- A second and stronger arctic cold front will arrive Monday with
  even colder air and additional light snow. Portions of eastern
  New Mexico will likely remain below freezing for 3 to 4
  consecutive days with bitter wind chills accompanying.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

Strong westerly to northwesterly winds taper off this evening.
They will be replaced by an influx of modified Arctic air invading
northeastern NM Saturday. This bitter cold air expands to all of
eastern NM Sunday, remaining persistent through Tuesday.
Dangerously cold wind chills below zero falling into the -10s and
-20s will be present across northeastern NM Monday and Tuesday
 mornings. Temperatures will also be well below normal through
 western and central NM during this time, but not as cold as
 eastern NM. A brief warm up arrives Wednesday breaking the streak
 of below freezing temperatures, before the next cold episode
 arrives Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 233 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

...ARCTIC COLD FRONTS BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Strong westerly to northwesterly winds associated with a strong
jetmax crossing central and southern NM are currently ongoing this
afternoon. Several wind prone areas have reported peak gusts of 60
to 70 mph from Clines Corners to Fort Sumner to Clovis. Ample
blowing dust is also very evident on satellite and observations
along the border with Mexico and in parts of the TX Panhandle near
Lubbock. This has not yet materialized much across central and
eastern NM, but areas along and south of I-40 and along and east of
I-25 could still see patchy blowing dust. The exception is an
isolated area of blowing dust near Roswell where a Dust Advisory has
recently been issued. Winds will taper off this evening as the
atmosphere decouples and the stronger winds aloft exit the area.

Thereafter a backdoor frontal boundary currently hung-up across
northeastern NM will bring a sharp drop in air temperatures to
eastern NM tonight. The associated modified Arctic airmass will also
bring snow and winter impacts to areas along the Raton Pass
stretching to surrounding areas of Colfax, Mora, Union and Harding
Counties. Have left the slate of Winter Weather Advisories as they
were. The Winter Storm Warning focused on the heaviest snow amounts
of 4 to 7 inches along Raton Pass and U.S. 64/87 toward Capulin and
Des Moines also remains in tact for tonight through Saturday. Snow
along the highlands and parts of northeastern and east-central NM
will taper off late Saturday into the evening.

As snow wanes, abysmally cold Arctic air pushes further into eastern
NM. Forecast highs Saturday will be in the 10s to 20s across the
northeastern plains, with a sharp temperature gradient into the 40s
to low 50s at Roswell. Colder air advecting into western NM and into
the Rio Grande Valley from behind today`s Pacific cold front will be
colder but nowhere near as cold as the Arctic airmass pushing into
northeastern NM. Highs here will range from the 30s to low 50s. A
Cold Weather Advisory looks likely for much of the forecast area
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

The modified Arctic airmass  advances through the rest of eastern NM
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dangerous wind chills falling
into the single-digits to -0s is forecast many areas Sunday
morning. The worst of this will be focused in the northern
mountains of NM and the northeastern plains of Colfax and Union
Counties where wind chills are forecast to fall into the -10s and
-20s. Highs remain stuck in the 10s to 20s for northeastern NM,
with 30s widespread elsewhere across western, central and
southeastern NM. Wind chills quickly fall back below zero for many
northern areas of NM Sunday night into Monday morning. A
reinforcing shot of Arctic air invades eastern NM Monday with the
arrival of another backdoor frontal boundary associated with a
shortwave trough crossing northern and eastern NM. Little snow is
forecast Monday evening along the central mountain chain, but
there may be a few isolated winter impacts from this. The main
impact message is the continued persistence of dangerous wind
chills remain below zero across northeastern NM lasting all day
Monday. Wind chills only get worse Monday night into Tuesday with
more widespread -10s and -20s along the Sangre de Cristo Mts,
northeastern highlands and -10s stretching across the northeastern
plains. These levels would warrant meet Extreme Cold Weather
criteria and one may be issued if the forecast holds as we get
closer to Tuesday morning. Actual low temperatures are forecast to
fall into the single-digits to just below zero in these areas.

This is a very long stretch of very cold weather and dangerous wind
chills across northeastern NM, beginning tonight and lasting into
Tuesday afternoon. Anyone exposed to these elements will be at risk
of hypothermia and frostbite. Preparatory actions to protect people,
pets, pipes and agriculture from this cold need to be taken now.
High temperatures will not warm enough to allow for effective
measures to be taken during this event.

Warmer weather does not arrive back into NM until Wednesday as a
ridge of high pressure tries to build in from the southwest. Yet
another round of cold is forecast to push back into NM Thursday, so
any warm-up will be very brief.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

Backdoor front is currently pushing through southeast NM with
developing low clouds and light snow resulting in MVFR conditions
across far northeast NM. Low clouds and MVFR conditions will
spread south to KTCC early this morning and get close to KLVS
around sunrise. Snow across far northeast NM (i.e. Raton Pass and
KRTN)will develop further after sunrise Saturday resulting in
some IFR conditions. MVFR condition will exist across the rest of
the northeast plains behind an arctic front from low clouds and
light snow/mist. Meanwhile across western and central NM, SKC with
gusty northwest winds. Some gusts of 35 to 45 kts possible at
KFMN, KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF. An Airport Weather Warning will likely
be required for KABQ beginning around 19Z. Northwest winds across
western and central NM slowly taper off after sunset. Arctic
front across northeast will resurge south and west across eastern
NM at the end of the TAF period with some gusts of 25 to 30 kts on
the leading edge of the front. MVFR conditions across the
northeast plains from low clouds and light snow will gradually
diminish with low clouds and possible MVFR conditions becoming
more focused across the east slopes and nearby highlands along the
central mountain chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon from the combination
of dry weather and very strong westerly winds will give way this
evening. It will be replaced by lesser winds through western and
central NM, with a northerly to easterly wind shift behind a
backdoor frontal boundary pushing through eastern NM tonight. This
cold front will be the first wave of a modified Arctic airmass
bringing dangerously cold temperatures to northeastern NM that will
persist through Tuesday. Very cold weather will also persist
elsewhere across the state with well below normal temperatures.
Moderate snow impacts are also forecast along Raton Pass and much of
Colfax, Mora, Union and Harding Counties tonight through Saturday.
Otherwise, northwesterly transport winds will favor the western half
of the forecast area, while very shallow northeasterly winds will
favor the eastern plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  17  34   9  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................   5  32  -5  27 /   0  10   0   0
Cuba............................  15  31   3  29 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  12  37  -1  38 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  18  35   8  36 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  15  37   1  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  19  39   8  42 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  25  43  16  40 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  23  38  11  41 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................   9  50   3  48 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  21  53  16  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................   7  25  -5  21 /   0  20   5   0
Los Alamos......................  21  31   9  29 /   0   5   5   0
Pecos...........................  18  34   6  28 /   0  10  20   5
Cerro/Questa....................  15  29   0  24 /   5  40  20   0
Red River.......................  10  19  -4  15 /  10  60  40  10
Angel Fire......................   3  23 -16  19 /   5  60  40  10
Taos............................   9  31  -3  26 /   0  30  20   0
Mora............................  13  32   1  27 /   0  40  40   5
Espanola........................  15  41   4  35 /   0   5  10   0
Santa Fe........................  19  35   9  29 /   0  10  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  18  38   8  32 /   0   5  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  27  39  19  34 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  24  42  16  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  22  45  11  38 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  24  43  16  37 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  23  48   8  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  23  43  14  37 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  21  46   7  39 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  23  44  15  37 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  23  47   9  39 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  26  38  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  24  42  16  37 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  26  52  16  43 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  23  34  11  30 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  24  36  14  32 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  21  36   8  33 /   0   0   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  16  38   3  34 /   0   0   5   0
Clines Corners..................  18  32   5  29 /   0   5  10   0
Mountainair.....................  23  40   9  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  23  40   9  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  26  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  27  40  12  34 /   0   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  14  18  -4  17 /  20  90  20   0
Raton...........................  14  22  -2  20 /  20  90  20   5
Springer........................  15  26   1  23 /   5  70  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  16  30   6  27 /   0  30  30   5
Clayton.........................  18  23   4  23 /  10  60  10   0
Roy.............................  18  24   5  22 /   5  70  30   0
Conchas.........................  23  33  11  32 /   0  50  30   5
Santa Rosa......................  21  40  11  33 /   0  20  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  21  31   9  30 /   0  50  30   0
Clovis..........................  24  37  13  28 /   0  20  20   0
Portales........................  23  41  12  30 /   0  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  22  45  11  31 /   0  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  31  53  20  35 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  28  52  14  36 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  26  51  11  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Saturday for NMZ227-230.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Saturday for NMZ228-231.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...71